Recently a friend of mine asked me the following question (excerpt):
“I’ve been wondering about somethings, and thought you might have an opinion…..when the economy starts to turn around and we start pulling out of this mess, do you think how we do business as landscape architects and the development business as a whole will be different than it was before? Do you think we as landscape architects will continue to become more of an integral part of projects, team leaders as we were in Colorado? Or is our status shrinking again? Do you see developers developing entire projects for just building the infrastructure and selling paper lots? Or do you see things changing to a completely new way of doing things? Are things still headed toward the muli-discplinary firms?”
The following was my reply:
“Good questions. I do think we are going to be seeing a huge consolidation of firms, and more multi-disciplinary firms. I also see things going far more in the direction of design-build… particularly public projects. We are seeing Fort Collins going that way for all public buildings, and I bet it will head more in that direction for other public facilities as well. I don’t think that is a bad thing, and I have enjoyed the ones I have worked on. I see a big disconnect between us design types, and the way things get built in the field. I have never been convinced that architect/designers/engineers know all about construction when it comes to designing things. On the other hand, as we both know, contractors don’t always have an eye towards design. Of course I am generalizing. There are certainly some craftsman contractors out there with a strong eye for design, and vice verse. I like the idea of being able to get solid budget numbers as we design projects. I think LA’s in particular, do tend to over design projects and add unnecessary costs. But then most civil engineers who think they are designers tend to under design… costs drives design.
I think the best projects is where all team members respect each others discipline and work towards the same goal. I have always tried to do that, and found the projects that are most enjoyable are where that has occurred.
As for the state of development, unfortunately what you are witnessing where engineers and architects rule the world is more the norm than not. What you saw in CA and Denver with the big builders dominating the market is not the rule. In fact, I think that the days of big builders are numbered, at least as large as they have been. I forsee a rise of the smaller builders again, at least for several years. Eventually the big builders will take over again. I do see that builders, esp. big ones, will quit developing their own land and buy finished lots from developers. That has been shifting for several years.
As for what developments will look like I am not really certain. For the short term, I see smaller 10-20 lot developments getting done, as they will be easier to get financed and absorbed by the market, and ones that fill particular niches. On the other hand, economies of scale are hard on these small projects, something I know first hand. Over time larger projects will again come to roost. I do kind of like the model that Lowry and Stapleton have formed, where builders only buy a block of lots here, and a block of lots there, so it is truly mixed.”
While this is kind of long and rambling, I would be interested in knowing what you all think.
